The journey to a world where global temperatures in 2100 are only 2oC warmer than pre-industrial times has been painted in an assortment of colours. From the rosy glow of a renewable rich world where global emissions steadily decrease, to the bleaker grey of rising emissions requiring ‘last ditch’ attempts to bring the world back from the brink, the possible pathways are numerous.
Most
commonly used are the IPCC scenarios. In particular, the scenario
named RCP 2.6, representing a potential pathway for
us to meet the target of 2oC by the end of the century.
However, this pathway relies heavily on the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere
to produce negative emissions; where we take away more
emissions than we put into the atmosphere. Even in the best case scenario, some sources can’t become carbon neutral, so
CO2 will need to be removed to counteract this. Personally, this
feels rather like CDR territory…
The novel picture below taken
from ‘The 2oC dream’ highlights the
settings for the global thermostat; fuels=green, CCS=max, forests=max, CO2=less
than 450 parts per million. The green energy, maximum forest cover and capped
CO2 did not come as a surprise, but the carbon capture and storage
(CCS) certainly did. CCS prevents CO2 from power
plants entering the atmosphere. Inside the power plant CO2
is removed, compressed into a liquid and injected into storage
sites deep below the ground. However, CCS alone is not a
form of geoengineering because the carbon is removed before it gets
to the atmosphere.
Does this make geoengineering irrelevant?
To
produce the negative emissions seen in the RCP2.6 scenario, CCS has to be coupled with bioenergy to remove atmospheric
carbon. Together they are known as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
(BECCS). This
is geoengineering. Bioenergy involves growing biomass (e.g. plants)
which take in atmospheric CO2 through photosynthesis
over their lifetime. Using this biomass to make energy, fuel or within chemical
production would release the CO2 back into the atmosphere (see
diagram below), but not if it is captured and stored. Currently,
only one large scale demonstration plant is
in existence but as the video below shows there are big ideas for expansion.
|
Comparison of emissions produced by different
fuels (Kemper, 2015)
Next week I will look at BECCS in more detail and
give my opinion on this technology. If you already have thoughts or
considerations on BECCS please leave a comment!
|
No comments:
Post a Comment